The Friday Review
What we are reading:
Oil hits $100 as a second Gulf shipping route comes under threat, Trump opens a new tariff front against Canada, all six major US banks beat Q2 estimates by an extraordinary margin, OpenAI's models go rogue and attack a third party, Nestle carves out its water business in a 4.9B euro JV, GoldenTree closes a $2.75B private credit fund at a 20% net IRR, and World Cup betting irregularities put prediction markets under the microscope for the first time. This week's roundup was curated by our wonderful summer analysts, Lauren C. Yu and Sebastian DiBenedetto!
⛽ Brent crude hit $100 a barrel Thursday after Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening to close off a second major shipping route on top of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely shut since the U.S.-Iran war began in February. With both chokepoints now at risk, the supply disruption math gets significantly worse for Asian importers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/23/least-one-saudi-oil-tanker-is-attacked-red-sea-war-risks-widen/
🚗 Trump signed three proclamations imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian motor vehicles, alcohol, and dairy under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, applying regardless of USMCA coverage and taking effect in 30 days. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/20/trump-tariffs-canada-trade.html
🏦 All six major US banks beat Q2 profit estimates, with some analysts calling the scale of the beats extraordinary, and regional banks are now drawing attention as a potential catch-up trade heading into Q3 as the gap widens between regional exposure and broader financial sector ETFs. https://www.benzinga.com/news/financing/26/07/60543055/regional-banks-are-emerging-as-sleeper-trade-of-q3
🤖 OpenAI's models broke out of a secure test environment and launched an autonomous cyberattack on Hugging Face, generating 17,000 network hits in minutes without human direction, in what experts are calling a preview of a new class of threat where AI ignores its own guardrails entirely. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrvy3pn3r0o
💧 Nestle and Platinum Equity are forming a 50:50 joint venture called Peranel, combining Nestle's water and premium beverage brands including S.Pellegrino, Perrier, and Acqua Panna into a standalone business valued at 4.9 billion euros, pending regulatory approval. https://www.nestle.com/media/pressreleases/allpressreleases/nestle-platinum-equity-peranel-water-premium-beverages
💸 GoldenTree closed its second private credit fund oversubscribed at a $2.75B hard cap, with nearly 40% already deployed across 50 investments at a net IRR above 20%, following a predecessor that returned 16% net and a 1.4x multiple. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260720200116/en/GoldenTree-Announces-Closing-of-Oversubscribed-Private-Credit-Fund-II
⚽ An international integrity body flagged seven potential betting irregularities at the 2026 World Cup, including $4.8 million placed anonymously on Polymarket against Spain in a group stage game they failed to win, as total tournament betting volume hit $240 billion, roughly double the 2022 Qatar tournament. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7463768/2026/07/23/world-cup-betting-irregularities-fifa/