The Friday Review

What we are reading:

The Iran war has moved from a geopolitical story to an economic one. Consumer confidence is at record lows, Whirlpool is saying sales are at recession-levels, and a former White House advisor says we're headed toward a cliff on oil. Seven reads this week on that and a few things entirely unrelated to it:

1) Whirlpool says the Iran war is driving a recession-level decline in appliance demand. Shares are down 20%. When it shows up in earnings calls at this speed, the transmission mechanism is working faster than most models assumed. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/whirlpool-says-iran-war-causing-recession-level-industry-decline-the-shares-are-down-20percent.html

2) Consumer confidence just hit a new record low, with the Iran war now the primary driver. The data is moving in one direction. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-sentiment-falls-to-new-record-lows-amid-war-in-iran-7ae40a27

3) Amos Hochstein, former Biden Middle East advisor, at the Milken Conference: the U.S. is headed toward a cliff on oil and no one has a clear answer for what comes next. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOqBuGxULiU&t=482s

4) The SEC is actively investigating alleged fraud in private credit. https://www.advisorhub.com/sec-investigating-alleged-fraud-in-private-credit-atkins-says/

5) ShinyHunters hacked Canvas, the learning management system used by 9,000 schools, during finals week. The timing was deliberate. Maximum leverage, minimum sympathy. https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/07/us/canvas-hack-strands-college-students-finals-week

6) A cruise ship left Argentina on April 1 for a remote Antarctic voyage. Three passengers are now dead from hantavirus and the ship is stranded off Cape Verde. One of the stranger stories of the year. https://www.wsj.com/world/the-33-day-atlantic-odyssey-that-turned-into-a-hantavirus-nightmare-ae8c7f48

7) Sweden went all-in on screens in schools. Test scores fell, reading comprehension dropped, and the country is now paying €100M to bring back physical books. The country that moved fastest is also reversing fastest. https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/05/07/why-swedish-schools-are-going-unplugged

Lastly, our latest Compass newsletter is out this week - https://lnkd.in/gq2ywxiv