The Friday Review

Fun Fact: A Wall Street prime brokerage group put out a note highlighting the move in CRE brokers is a nine standard deviation move, after a nine standard deviation move the day prior. A nine sigma move (assuming daily price action and one-tail, so only down moves) should happen once every ~35 quadrillion years. Assuming the events are independent, two nine sigma events in a row should take place once every 330 quintillion times the age of the universe (assuming the universe is ~14B years old). Framed differently, the equivalent of buying just one ticket to the Powerball 29 times in a row, and having every ticket win. H/t to Ben Marshall for the great find!

What we are reading:

🧠 Understanding the biological cost of exhaustion.
https://lnkd.in/gkT5s8ri

📈 Matt Levine on the AI Whateverpocalypse Trade.
https://lnkd.in/gU5qHkF7

🤖 A thoughtful article on AI that is getting widely shared.
https://lnkd.in/exADbhCt

📊 Recent stock market volatility could be an ominous indicator.
https://lnkd.in/gWmpq9dw

🖼️ The case for slow looking and the strategic value of patient observation.
https://lnkd.in/ghKpD8Mi

Stay thoughtful and have a great long weekend!