What we are reading:
Oil went through $100, August producer prices came in at 5.4%, and a September hike is now the market's base case. Also: a proposal to change how Treasury sells duration, and Power 4 athletic departments earning more and losing more. The last pick is a reading for the 25th anniversary of September 11.
📈 Producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% over the year, diesel up 24.1%. The 10-year sat at 4.83% Wednesday and a September hike moved to the base case. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/the-likelihood-of-a-fed-interest-rate-hike-next-week-just-got-a-lot-higher.html
🛢️ Saudi Arabia told OPEC its August crude output fell 1.9 million barrels a day to 6.24 million, the lowest since 1990. It still supplied 7.12 million, drawing down storage to do it. https://in.investing.com/news/economy-news/saudi-arabias-crude-output-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1990--report-5588370
🏛️ A proposal to sell Treasury duration straight to pensions and insurers on deferred settlement, arguing $1.5 trillion of synthetic duration sits on levered repo books that never wanted it. https://treasury-dsa.github.io/
🏈 Nineteen Power 4 schools lost money on athletics in 2024-25 against seven a decade earlier, and three of the four conferences lost money at the conference level. Revenue is at a record and so is the gap. https://cardinalnews.org/2026/09/04/college-sports-are-awash-in-more-money-than-ever-yet-a-growing-number-of-schools-are-losing-money-on-intercollegiate-athletics/
🕯️ Greg Barton at 25 years: the costlier failure was not missing the plot, it was misreading how a response can amplify an attack. https://theconversation.com/the-failure-to-stop-9-11-was-a-catastrophe-but-even-bigger-mistakes-were-made-in-its-aftermath-289982
Our chart, updated from July: losses turned back up in the first half and the 10-year has added 36bp since the June 30 mark. Q3 is not reported yet, and long fixed-rate books are already carrying more than this shows.
